The latest study examines home values in the largest 100 metropolitan areas from 1991 through the fourth quarter of 2019. Although home prices are rising broadly, increases in value remain uneven. As such, value gaps in many areas continue to narrow but no new markets joined the ranks of the recovered in the latest quarter, and some markets seem unlikely to reach recovery in the current economic and housing cycle. However, there is a group of markets that stand a good chance to move into the black in the next quarter or two.
HSH.com's "Home Price Recovery Index" uses the
In addition, three markets (
Areas with greatest pricing recovery |
Percent value now above "boom era" price peak |
1. |
97.71% |
2. |
85.82% |
3. |
75.50% |
It is important to note that many markets have seen significant price recoveries since hitting their bottom values but many have still not attained full recovery of lost value. In fact, there are still five metros areas where this is the case despite a doubling or more of "bust era" bottom home values, and two (
Areas with largest recovery gaps |
Percent increase needed to regain price peak |
1. |
21.13% |
2. |
15.90% |
3. |
15.27% |
Although increases in home values in the fourth quarter weren't strong enough to move any new markets into the black, home price gains are improving the fortunes of those next in line, making it a virtual certainty that another group will join the recovered ranks soon.
Areas nearing recovery |
Percent increase needed to regain price peak |
1. |
0.22% |
2. |
0.86% |
3. |
0.97% |
Important takeaways
- Lower and still falling mortgage rates are re-igniting home price gains. 64 markets now have values that are more than 10% above previous peak, a figure up from 61 just a quarter ago, and an increase of 7 metros compared against the fourth quarter of 2018.
- Only eight metro areas still have double-digit value gaps yet to fill. Better still, the size of the gaps in the markets with the greatest chasms continues to shrink. Two markets in the group with the largest recovery gaps have only single-digit value gaps to cover, and the market with the largest gap (
Bakersfield, CA ) has seen its gap shrink from 24.34% last year to 21.13% in the latest review, so progress is being made, if slowly. - There were no new entrants in to the "most recovered" group. However, stronger price gains in the
Colorado Springs CO andBuffalo NY metro areas pushedSan Antonio TX from its #8 slot in the "most recovered" group to #10. In the top group, no market has seen home values increase by less than 50% since their respective bottoms. - Although no new markets hit "escape velocity" this quarter, a total of six seem poised to do so in the next quarter or two. Three are shown in the table above; the three others can be seen in the analysis which accompanies the content on HSH.
- The ranks of the markets with the largest gaps to fill were shuffled a bit in the fourth quarter. After dropping in during the 3Q19 ranking, the
Chicago -Naperville -Evanston IL metro stepped back out in Q4, replaced by theLake County -Kenosha County IL/WI metro. As noted,Bakersfield, CA retained the top spot and five others swapped positions in the remaining nine slots.
See the full analysis here: https://www.hsh.com/finance/real-estate/home-price-recovery.html
Homeowners interested in seeing how their home's value has changed over time are encouraged to use HSH.com's free "Home Value Estimator" tool. It allows users to select their market from 100 metropolitan areas and enter the time frame in which they've owned their home; the tool reveals changes in the home's value during this ownership period and provides a current price estimate based on housing cost trends in the selected metro area.
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SOURCE HSH.com